But don’t count Netanyahu out yet. He stunned pollsters and pundits three years ago with an upset victory. Cautions one senior U.S. official, “Anyone who has watched this man work does not undersell him.” That said, during his term Netanyahu drove from high office at least four of his key Likud party cabinet ministers–among them Benny Begin and Yitzhak Mordechai. Even worse for Netanyahu is a backlash over the tactics of one religious party whose support he rewarded with important posts. In particular, Russian immigrants–who have emerged as the key voting bloc–have bridled at their treatment by the Interior Ministry, controlled by the Shas Party. Russian immigrant leaders like Natan Sharansky, a member of Netanyahu’s coalition, now demand the Interior Ministry as the price of their continued support. Shas, whose leader, Aryeh Deri, was recently convicted of bribe taking, responded with attack ads depicting Russian immigrants as pork-eating pimps and prostitutes.
Netanyahu, although he denies it, encouraged his former chief of staff, Avigdor Lieberman, to form a rival Russian party to reduce Sharansky’s power. The move backfired. Last weekend the prime minister admitted to his advisers that he’s in trouble. At last he agreed to heed their advice and try to reconcile with Sharansky. But is it too little, too late?
NEWSWEEK’s Lally Weymouth last week talked at length with both candidates and Shas leader Deri. Excerpts:
Barak: Breaking Up the Mood of Permanent Gloominess
BARAK: This election is about the need for change and about character. Netanyahu tried to make it about security and who will negotiate in a tougher way with the Palestinians and the Syrians. Security is a major issue, but it’s very hard to describe me the way he described [1996 Labor candidate] Shimon Peres–as a weak person. After all, I spent 35 years [in the Army]–from private to chief of staff.
We are determined to bring change, unity and hope. For the last three years the peace process has been stuck, the economy is stagnant [and] education is going backward. The mood of the people is sinking into a kind of permanent gloominess.
We are determined to regain momentum in the peace process. Peace agreements, if they are achieved under careful security constraints, can contribute to a more secure Israel.
I am determined to improve the economy by renewing foreign investment and increasing growth.
I’m making inroads into every part of the electorate where people lost trust in Netanyahu, the same way that foreign leaders lost trust in him.
The idea came to me when a young Russian soldier came to my home for Passover. I found out that his mother brought him up from early childhood. But she is not Jewish enough for our officials in the Interior Ministry, so they sent her back to Vladivostok. I said that in my government this will never happen… My basic common sense says that if he’s Jewish enough to join the Air Force and risk his life, his mother should be good enough as well.
I [am] considering forming a wide government. Whoever wants to join my guidelines and policies, I will consider it seriously.
I think they can be recuperated, but Netanyahu’s tenure has inflicted a sizable, self-inflicted damage. Arafat became the darling of the White House and the European Union. The intimacy that was the rule of the game between an American president and an Israeli prime minister has been replaced by a new intimacy between Arafat and the American president. Netanyahu in a way created a de facto Palestinian state. He gave birth to it at the Wye Plantation [talks] and then ratified it in the collective memory of the world by orchestrating the Clinton visit to Gaza.
It is our right to settle, but it needs to be done in a wise manner. I cannot see why settlements should not grow naturally. But new settlements are not needed.
I don’t want to go into the details. The feeling of separation should be achieved within the framework of four constraints: a united Jerusalem; no return under whatever circumstances to the borders of 1967; no armed forces west of the Jordan River, and lots of settlements under our sov-ereignty that would include most of the settlers. I believe that it can be done, and I committed myself to pass it through a national referendum.
Netanyahu: Some Say Superb, Others Say Far From It
NETANYAHU: The only change that is taking place is a shift of 2 percent, and that’s what’s moved from me to him… I think I can reverse it.
Yeah, but not by much.
Because of the shift in the Russian [immigrant vote]. That’s the major reason.
Well, as we discover what he really thinks, we see that the differences are really quite substantial. And I think that one of the problems is that he sits atop the party that has moved very sharply to the left… I think it’s not accidental that Arafat wants Barak to win and that [Syrian leader] Hafez al-Assad wants Barak to win.
The peace process will continue because neither the Syrians nor the Palestinians have any options but to go to peace. The problem we have is what kind of peace will we have. We can easily forge a peace that will make us so weak as to nullify its advantages and ultimately put us at risk. The left believes that if we give larger and larger slices of our country to our Arab interlocutors, their appetites will be satisfied. I believe that the more they have, [the more] their appetites will be whetted.
I’m not sure that one can account for his views, because he said in the United States that he’s not expressing leftist views in order to win the election. He changed the Labor Party platform… introducing a clause effectively supporting a Palestinian state, something that even Peres didn’t do.
That is not true. I said that our general policy is to expand the existing settlements, that we had not made any decisions about building new settlements, that we would generally build in contiguous areas. But I also made the point that there are exceptions to that general policy. So I suppose what they are arguing about is how many exceptions [there are].
I think that this has become a chant that, if repeated often enough, people accept as unvarnished truth, and in fact it’s got nothing to do with the truth. Because any time somebody asked me or demanded of me something and I didn’t give it to them, they claimed I lied to them.
Yes, I thought that almost a year ago when I suggested this to Barak, but he declined.
I think there are many things that I would do differently, because no one is exempted from mistakes. But I do believe that the general pattern we proceeded in, and that is turning Israel into a free-market economy, promoting high technology…
If you ask me about my image with the voters, with half of them it’s superb, with half of them it’s far from superb. The half who read the Israeli newspapers and is susceptible to the Israeli media often see me and my colleagues presented in a demonic fashion. Most of the journalists and broadcasters have found it hard to accept that the blissful peace that was supposed to come out of Oslo did not materialize. The collapse of that dream had to be pinned on somebody, and I was that somebody. They’re going to be mightily disappointed if I win.
Deri: Great Agitation Within the Sephardic Community
DERI: He made a lot of mistakes, due to lack of experience. He wasn’t given much of a chance. But today he is a better prime minister than he was three years ago.
Until Bibi Netanyahu, the Oslo agreement was only supported by half of the nation. When his Likud party was in opposition in 1996, they said the Oslo accords were illegal and illegitimate. But Netanyahu continued with the Oslo accords and signed the Hebron agreement [that brought most of the city’s Arab population under Palestinian control]. If Shimon Peres had made the Hebron agreement when he was still prime minister, I think civil war would have broken out. The Labor Party and the left alone cannot bring peace.
We support Netanyahu. But we will also make sure, with God’s help, that Netanyahu establishes a unity government. To my sorrow, the Israeli public is divided into two nations.
I’m talking about the Sephardics, the religious and the Arabs in the state of Israel. That’s the reality: Bibi represents these people.
I don’t think there’s anybody in Israel who knows. But Bibi Netanyahu is very lucky.
Ask God.
I think he’s making a grave mistake. He’s caused the whole religious population and also the Sephardics [non-European Jews] to distance themselves from him. He’s also causing a rift among the people. What he’s doing now with the new [Russian] immigrants–saying that he’ll give them the Interior Ministry–will lead to great agitation within the Sephardic community.
