The Islamists have played a double game. Even as they railed against Musharraf’s security alliance with the United States, and his sporadic drives against extremists, they quietly worked with the increasingly unpopular general. The military-mullah alliance goes back to the 1980s, when the military funded Islamist guerrillas fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and survives today. In 2003, MMA votes allowed Musharraf to pass a constitutional amendment to retain simultaneously the posts of president and army chief of staff. But when Musharraf reneged on his side of the deal—that he would later resign his military post—party supporters began defecting in disgust.
Meanwhile, in the tribal areas, radicals began violently enforcing rigid Islamic rule, bombing music stores, closing girls’ schools. Insurgent attacks multiplied and many Pakistanis blame the mullahs for the chaos. In NWFP, locals further resent them for failing to improve social services. In the provincial legislature, the MMA won 72 of 120 seats in 2002, but may only win 20 this time. “They will get trounced,” predicts Afrasiab Khattak, NWFP provincial president of the moderate Awami National Party.
The big winners will likely be secular anti-Musharraf parties, including those of the recently assassinated icon Benazir Bhutto and of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. An MMA defeat would also undercut Musharraf’s two-faced claim to the West that he must remain in power, over growing popular opposition, as a bulwark against the MMA and the possibility that the mullahs might gain control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. “He will no longer be able to play the mullah card,” says Mohammad Farooq Khan, a prominent NWFP political analyst. And the West may finally get a leader with whom it can work. —Sami Yousafzai, Ron MoreauandZahid Hussain
Conspiracy Theory: Ch á vez ’ s Shaky Grip Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is getting more erratic, even paranoid. With his approval rating plummeting recently to 36 percent, the strain is showing. In December, he used the S word four times on television to describe his defeat in a constitutional referendum that would have extended his power indefinitely. In response to food shortages—the result of Chávez’s price controls—he accused companies of withholding goods as part of a conspiracy to undermine him. “Just give me the excuse I’m looking for to expropriate you,” he snarled. He repeatedly leveled the charge that the Bush administration is plotting to kill him, most recently in January. Last week, amid a dispute with ExxonMobil, he threatened to cut off oil sales to the United States—an economic suicide threat, given that the U.S. is his biggest oil customer. The price of oil barely moved—a sign the world is ignoring his mood swings. —Phil Gunson
Sarko L ’ americain: Tempest Brewing French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s habit of following grand sales pitches with weak follow-through is undermining him ahead of elections in March, widely seen as a personal test. He promised to be a “purchasing-power president,” only to see the price of baguettes soar. Unable to deliver, he had to concede in January that state coffers were empty. He campaigned to help France’s riot-prone suburbs with a “Marshall Plan,” evoking the $12 billion postwar U.S. bailout for Europe. So, when he unveiled the proposal on Feb. 8, he disappointed by denouncing “handouts” and giving few budget details.
To make matters worse, Sarkozy’s personal intrigues keep coming: last week his 21-year-old son helped orchestrate a putsch of his father’s handpicked—but struggling—mayoral candidate in Neuilly, Sarko’s symbolic “fiefdom.” When the president commandeered television time the same night to sell his role in the Lisbon Treaty, the appearance was derided as mere diversion from the “soap opera.”
Such theatrics foreshadow trouble. Sarkozy’s approval rating fell last month from 49 percent to 39 percent. Nerves are raw in his UMP party, and his cabinet dreads a reshuffling if it loses the nationwide municipal elections. Last week he called for his allies to maintain “the greatest levelheadedness and the greatest calm,” sounding oddly like a president at war, in peacetime. —Tracy Mcnicoll
Market Watch Not all emerging markets will fare the same as the U.S. economy heads south. Commodity producers (think Russia, Peru, Chile, Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina) are looking robust thanks to full coffers resulting from higher prices on everything from oil to wheat. Others, especially those who haven’t got their fiscal house in order (South Africa, Turkey) can look forward to a more perilous ride. —Rana Foroohar
Love At First Dance: Uzbeki Idol What do you get when you take a whisky-swilling Brit who enjoys a good spank and you introduce him to an Uzbeki strip-club dancer? Apparently, an account of diplomat Craig Murray’s romance with Nadira Alieva, now adapted as the one-woman stage play, “The British Ambassador’s Belly Dancer” (starring Nadira), that runs in London’s West End through February 23.
Four years ago, Murray’s tale gripped Britain when he was dismissed from his Uzbekistan post over rumors of a penchant for prostitutes, heavy drinking and unseemly behavior. Murray, who did not deny the allegations and left his wife for Nadira, says he was canned because he spoke out against the use of torture on suspected terrorists.
But sex, booze and international scandal can’t save the script from its clunky metaphors—tree stumps symbolize truncated Uzbeki lives—and cheesy lines like “the beautiful balloon of a moon.” Weirdly, Nadira overacts terribly when playing herself, yet shines when she is pretending to be her former strip-club boss or the policeman who raped her. If she still manages to spin a reasonably compelling tale of a young, desperate woman trapped in the former Soviet Union, one can’t help but think: too bad the monologue is not as mesmerizing as the belly dancing. —Ginanne Brownell
Cultural Outreach: Virtual Diplomacy Just as it did during the Cold war, the U.S. is betting jazz will boost its image abroad and break down borders—even virtual ones.
In October, the State Department cosponsored a Jazz Fest in the online universe Second Life, where 65 percent of approximately 1 million “residents” are outside the United States—fertile ground for cultural outreach, officials say. America’s signature sound seemed like a perfect starting spot: “[Jazz] is a very strong public diplomacy tool for us,” says William May of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.
During the eight-hour event—held in a virtual replica of D.C.’s National Mall—some 250 “residents” listened to real-life artists like the U.S.’s Jean Munro and Uruguay’s Ankari Holder, who enjoy increased popularity thanks to regular SL gigs. Pleased with the turnout despite a “low key” ad campaign, organizers expect participation to increase significantly for future shows, which may include festivals with China and Brazil.
The first concert concluded with a Web chat on jazz’s ability to transcend nationality—the same idea that led President Dwight D. Eisenhower to dispatch musicians like Louis Armstrong overseas in the 1950s to help thaw cold-war tensions. With SL’s popularity rising, and the U.S.’s image falling, the State Department might be wise follow Ike’s lead and continue to invest in the diplomatic possibilities of virtual jazz. —Brian Byrnes
New Amsterdam: Razing The Red Lantern As legions of foreign backpackers can attest, Amsterdam without the Red Light District would be like Paris without the Eiffel Tower. Yet the city has unveiled an ambitious plan to replace the brothels and sex bars with galleries, fashion boutiques and upscale restaurants.
Last December, Mayor Job Cohen presented a scheme to upgrade the historic area that has, since the 15th century, been Europe’s tawdriest haven of sexual permissiveness. Cohen’s plan is to revoke the licenses of suspected sex bars (starting last month with two popular sex venues, the Casa Rosso and the Banana Bar) and then buy the real estate to rent or sell to more-wholesome businesses.
The cleanup follows a nationwide backlash against 1960s liberalism that has led to stricter rules on selling pot and a pending ban on hallucinogenic mushrooms. A recent survey showed that 67 percent of Amsterdam residents support the clampdown on illegal prostitution. “People in Amsterdam and the rest of the country are starting to discern real tolerance from bogus tolerance,” says Deputy Mayor Lodewijk Asscher, dismissing critics who say a clean Amsterdam will be a bore. He notes that Rudy Giuliani heard similar warnings when he scrubbed Times Square in the mid-’90s, only to see “record tourist numbers each year since.” Yes, Amsterdam will stay popular. As for its conservative politicians, Giuliani’s career now suggests a different fate. —Thijs Niemantsverdriet
